[분석]정시 합격점을 높이는 변수 7가지  
등록일 2008.11.27 첨부파일  

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42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;4242;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42;42?

2009학년도 정시모집에서는 지난해보다 14,444명이 줄어든 166,570명을 선발한다. 이는 금년도 전체 정원 378,625명 대비 44.0%로 그만큼 수시모집의 선발 인원이 늘었기 때문이다. 모집 군별로는 가군과 나군에서 각각 63,171명과 61,664명을 선발하고 다군은 41,735명을 선발하는데, 상대적으로 다군의 모집인원 감소폭이 두드러졌다.  

[표1-1 2009 정시 모집인원]

구분

수시1

수시2

정 시

가군

나군

다군

계

2009

인원

11,838명

202,671명

63,171명

61,664명

41,735명

166,570명

구성비

3.10%

53.18%

16.58%

16.18%

10.95%

43.71%

2008

인원

14,138명

186,740명

67,076명 

66,261명 

47,677명 

181,014명 

구성비

3.70%

48.90%

17.56%

17.35%

12.48%

47.40%

증감

인원

-2,300명

15,931명

-3,905명

-4,597명

-5,942명

-14,444명

[표1-2 2009 주요대학 정시 모집 비율 비교]

대학

2009학년

2008학년

대학

2009학년

2008학년

대학

2009학년

2008학년

건국대

56%

75%

서울대

43%

44%

이화여대

34%

46%

경희대

41%

42%

서울시립대

55%

63%

인하대

24%

40%

고려대

48%

65%

성균관대

40%

49%

중앙대

59%

40%

광운대

49%

42%

숙명여대

37%

60%

한국외대

55%

64%

동국대

42%

45%

아주대

44%

60%

한양대

45%

50%

서강대

38%

41%

연세대

40%

40%

홍익대

50%

51%

2.정시 수능 우선선발 및 수능 100% 반영대학 증가하였다.

 수능 성적을 100% 반영하는 전형은 지난해 11개 학교만 실시했지만 올해는 고려대와 연세대 등 71곳으로 크게 늘었다, 수능 성적을 80% 이상 반영하는 전형도 지난해 2곳에서 올해는 경북대와 전남대 등 97개 학교로 확대됐다. 우선선발의 경우도 새롭게 신설되거나 선발폭이 확대되었는데 경희대, 부산대, 숙명여대, 서강대, 아주대등이 선발비율을 기존 20~40%에서 50%로 확대하였고 서울시립대는 올해 처음으로 우선선발을 도입하였다. 우선선발의 특징은 일반선발에 비해 수능성적이 높아야 합격이 되며, 최초합격 외에는 추가 합격이 없으므로 수능 100% 전형 대학과는 차이가 있다.

[표1-3 2009 수능 우선선발 및 수능 100% 대학]

지역

수능우선선발

수능100%

서울인천

가톨릭대(50%),경희대(서울)(50%),고려대(서울)(50%),서울시립대(50%),성균관대(50%),연세대(50%),이화여대(50%),한양대(서울)(50%),상명대(50%),서강대(50%),서울시립대(50%),중앙대(서울)(50%)

,가톨릭대,건국대(서울),경희대(서울),광운대,덕성여대,동국대(서울),서울여대,성신여대,숭실대,

인천경기

경희대(국제)(50%),단국대(죽전)(20%),인하대(50%)

경원대,명지대(서울),아주대,안양대,을지대(성남),중앙대(안성),포천중문의과대,한국외국어대(용인),한국항공대,한신대,한양대(안산)

강원

　

강원대(춘천),경동대,관동대,연세대(원주)

대전충남

　

공주교대,대전대,선문대,한국기술교육대,한남대,홍익대(조치원)

충북

　

꽃동네현도사회복지대,청주교대,충북대,충주대

광주전남

　

동신대,목포가톨릭대,순천대,전남대(여수),조선대,호남대

전북

　

원광대

대구경북

　

경북대,경일대,계명대,대구가톨릭대,대구대,동국대(경주),상주대,영남대,한동대

부산울산경남

부산대(부산(50%),울산대(의예,조선해양-50%)

경남대,동명대,동아대,부산대(밀양),영산대(부산),영산대(양산)

제주

　

제주대

3.수도권 대학을 중심으로 수능반영영역 확대 및 모집군 이동 발생하였다. 

 그동안 중위권 대학을 중심으로 인문계 학과는 수리영역, 자연계 학과는 언어영역을 제외하던 경향에서 언수외탐 4개영역을 모두 반영하는 형태로 전환되고 있는데, 2009학년도에는 서울권 대학 중에서 국민대와 세종대가 인문, 자연계 학과 모두 언수외탐 4개영역으로 전환되었다. 이에 따라 특정영역을 포기하고 수능에 임했던 수험생들의 선택폭이 대폭 줄어들었는데, 이 경우 2009학년도의 경우 취약한 영역의 반영비율이 낮은 대학을 중심으로 지원전략을 수립해야 할 것으로 보인다.

[표1-4 2009 수도권 주요대학 반영영역 변동 사례]    

계열

대 학

2008학년도

2009학년도

인문

국민대

언+외+사탐

언+수나+외+사탐(경상:수,탐)

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